Wang Fang, Li Jing, Wang Jian, Xiang Shou-Yi, Chen Xin-Ting, Yi Xue-Mei, Huang Xian-Ting, Huang Ting
School of Geography and Resource Science, Neijiang Normal University, Neijiang 641100, China.
Intelligent Construction College, Neijiang Vocational and Technical College, Neijiang 641100, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Sep 8;46(9):5718-5728. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407242.
Land use change is an important factor affecting the carbon cycle and carbon reserves， and multiple scenario simulation of the impact of regional land use change on carbon reserves can provide decision support for formulating scientific land use policies. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone as an example， based on the evolution characteristics of land use from 1990 to 2020， the impact of land use change on carbon reserves during the 30 years was estimated using the InVEST model， and the coupling PLUS model was used to predict land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in 2030 under the natural development， urban development， and ecological protection scenarios. The study produced several interesting results： ① During 1990-2020， the land use structure in the research area was mainly cultivated land and forest land， which accounted for more than 86% of the area； cultivated land and grassland decreased； construction land， water area， forest land， and unused land increased； and land use transfer was mainly manifested in the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forest land and the transfer of cultivated land for construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020， the carbon reserves showed a distribution pattern of "middle low， surroundings high" and a change trend of "decrease-increase-decrease." The total accumulation decreased by 9.29×10 t， which was mainly attributable to the transfer of forest land to other land. The carbon reserves of cultivated land and forest land， which are the main sources of carbon reserves in the research area， accounted for about 90% of the total. ③ From 2020 to 2030， the areas of cultivated land， water area， and unused land all declined， the area of grassland increased， forest land increased under only the ecological protection scenario， and construction land expanded significantly under the urban development scenario. ④ Under the scenarios of natural development and urban development， carbon reserves decreased significantly， while under the scenario of ecological protection， carbon reserves increased significantly due to lower transfer probability of cultivated land， grassland， and forest land to construction land.
土地利用变化是影响碳循环和碳储量的重要因素，区域土地利用变化对碳储量影响的多情景模拟可为制定科学的土地利用政策提供决策支持。以成渝经济区为例，基于1990—2020年土地利用演变特征，利用InVEST模型估算30年间土地利用变化对碳储量的影响，并运用耦合PLUS模型预测2030年自然发展、城市发展和生态保护情景下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响。研究得出了几个有趣的结果：①1990—2020年，研究区土地利用结构以耕地和林地为主，二者面积占比超过86%；耕地和草地面积减少，建设用地、水域、林地和未利用地面积增加；土地利用转移主要表现为耕地与林地之间的相互转化以及耕地转为建设用地。②1990—2020年，碳储量呈现“中间低、周边高”的分布格局和“减少—增加—减少”的变化趋势。总储量减少了9.29×10 t，主要归因于林地向其他土地的转移。研究区碳储量的主要来源耕地和林地的碳储量约占总量的90%。③2020—2030年，耕地、水域和未利用地面积均下降，草地面积增加，仅在生态保护情景下林地面积增加，城市发展情景下建设用地显著扩张。④在自然发展和城市发展情景下，碳储量显著减少，而在生态保护情景下，由于耕地、草地和林地转为建设用地的转移概率较低，碳储量显著增加。
