Sun Jia-Yi, Zhao Li-Li, Zhu Kang-Hui, Wen Miao, Han Feng-Peng
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Agriculture on the Loess Plateau, College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China.
Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Engineering Technology Research Center, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Sep 8;46(9):5765-5776. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202405321.
This study aimed to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage from the perspective of territorial spatial planning， using Dali County as a case study. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage were analyzed from 1990 to 2020 using the InVEST and PLUS models. Then， the changes of the land use and carbon storage in 2030 were predicted under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and economic development. The results are as follows： ①The land use type of Dali County is mainly cultivated land， accounting for more than 70% of the total area， followed by forest land， grassland， water bodies， construction land， and unused land. From 1990 to 2020， the area of grassland and unused land decreases， while the area of cultivated land， forest land， water bodies， and construction land increase. Notably， the area of construction land experiences the most rapid increase of 78.72%. ② Spatially， the regions with a significant increase in carbon storage are located mainly in the southern sandy areas of Dali County， the regions with a decrease in carbon storage are scattered， and the carbon storage in the Yellow River beach area has a notable general downward trend. Temporally， the carbon storage in Dali County shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000. However， with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of construction land area during 2000 to 2020， the loss rate of carbon storage increases， and the loss amount reaches 50.78×10 t. ③ Obvious differences of carbon storage in 2030 emerge among the different scenarios. In the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage increases because the protection of forest and grass resources and strict constraints on the expansion of construction land are effectively ensured. In the natural development scenario， less carbon is lost. In the economic development scenario， the significant conversion of high-density carbon agricultural land to low-density carbon construction land leads to the greatest carbon loss. In light of these results， future land use planning in Dali County should focus on enhancing the control and protection of ecological nodes， strictly regulating the addition of new construction land， optimizing land use patterns， improving ecosystem service functions， increasing carbon sequestration efficiency， and promoting coordinated development between the county's economy and environment.
本研究旨在从国土空间规划的角度，以大荔县为例，探讨土地利用变化对碳储量时空动态的影响。利用InVEST和PLUS模型分析了1990年至2020年土地利用类型和碳储量的时空特征。然后，预测了2030年在自然发展、生态保护和经济发展三种情景下土地利用和碳储量的变化。结果如下：①大荔县土地利用类型以耕地为主，占总面积的70%以上，其次是林地、草地、水体、建设用地和未利用地。1990年至2020年，草地和未利用地面积减少，而耕地、林地、水体和建设用地面积增加。值得注意的是，建设用地面积增长最为迅速，增幅为78.72%。②在空间上，碳储量显著增加的区域主要位于大荔县南部沙地地区，碳储量减少的区域较为分散，黄河滩区碳储量总体呈明显下降趋势。在时间上，大荔县碳储量在1990年至2000年呈增加趋势。然而，随着2000年至2020年城市化进程的加快和建设用地面积的扩大，碳储量损失率增加，损失量达到50.78×10 t。③不同情景下2030年碳储量存在明显差异。在生态保护情景下，由于森林和草地资源得到有效保护，建设用地扩张受到严格限制，碳储量增加。在自然发展情景下，碳损失较少。在经济发展情景下，高密度碳农业用地向低密度碳建设用地的大量转换导致碳损失最大。鉴于这些结果，大荔县未来土地利用规划应着重加强对生态节点的管控与保护，严格规范新增建设用地，优化土地利用格局，提升生态系统服务功能，提高碳固存效率，促进县域经济与环境协调发展。
