Huang Yan, Liu Xiao-Man, Gao Bing-Bing, Hou Peng, Zhou Hai-Li
Satellite Application Center for Ecology and Environment, MEE, Beijing 100094, China.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Sep 8;46(9):5741-5751. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202408114.
Quantitative assessment and prediction of the impacts of regional land use changes on ecosystem carbon storage have profound practical significance for achieving sustainable regional development. Focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region （BTRSSR）， a key target area of the Grain for Green Program， this study leveraged land use data extending from 2000 to 2020. We first analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use changes within this period. Subsequently， the InVEST model was employed to discern the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of carbon storage. Furthermore， the Markov-PLUS model was applied to forecast the land use patterns and corresponding changes in carbon storage for the year 2040 under the three scenarios of natural development， urban development， and ecological conservation. The key findings are as follows： ① Land Use Dynamics （2000-2020）： The BTRSSR showed an expansion of forestland， grassland， shrubland， and construction land， accompanied by a contraction in water bodies， cultivated land， and unused land. Notably， cultivated land primarily transitioned to grassland， forestland， and construction land， while unused land primarily converted to grassland. ② Carbon Storage Trends （2000-2020）： Overall， the region's carbon storage exhibited an upward trend， with a total increase of 7.92 Tg. Spatially， a gradual decrease in carbon storage was observed from southeast to northwest. The augmentation of forestland and grassland emerged as the primary driver behind this increase in regional carbon storage. ③ Future Projections （2040）： With the exception of the urban development scenario， both the natural development and ecological conservation scenarios project further increases in future carbon storage in the BTRSSR. Notably， under the ecological conservation scenario， the projected total carbon storage reaches 4 243.65 Tg， surpassing that of the natural development scenario by 8.04 Tg. This underscores the assertion that the Grain for Green Program effectively enhances ecosystem carbon storage， with the ecological conservation scenario identified as the optimal development pathway for the study area. These findings highlight the critical role of land use management policies， particularly those promoting ecological restoration， in enhancing regional carbon sequestration and fostering sustainable development.
定量评估和预测区域土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响，对于实现区域可持续发展具有深远的现实意义。本研究聚焦于京津风沙源治理工程的重点目标区域——京津风沙源治理区（BTRSSR），利用了2000年至2020年的土地利用数据。我们首先分析了该时期内土地利用变化的时空格局。随后，运用InVEST模型来识别碳储量的时空分布和动态变化。此外，应用马尔可夫- PLUS模型预测了在自然发展、城市发展和生态保护三种情景下2040年的土地利用格局及相应的碳储量变化。主要研究结果如下：①土地利用动态（2000 - 2020年）：京津风沙源治理区林地、草地、灌木林地和建设用地面积扩大，水体、耕地和未利用地面积减少。值得注意的是，耕地主要转变为草地、林地和建设用地，而未利用地主要转变为草地。②碳储量趋势（2000 - 2020年）：总体而言，该区域碳储量呈上升趋势，共增加了7.92太克。在空间上，从东南向西北碳储量逐渐减少。林地和草地面积的增加是区域碳储量增加的主要驱动因素。③未来预测（2040年）：除城市发展情景外，自然发展和生态保护情景均预测京津风沙源治理区未来碳储量将进一步增加。值得注意的是，在生态保护情景下，预计总碳储量将达到4243.65太克，比自然发展情景高出8.04太克。这强调了退耕还林还草工程有效增加了生态系统碳储量，生态保护情景被确定为研究区域的最优发展路径。这些研究结果突出了土地利用管理政策，特别是那些促进生态恢复的政策，在增强区域碳固存和促进可持续发展方面的关键作用。
