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马尔可夫模型评估新兴烟草产品对人群的影响：一项概念验证研究。

Markov Modeling to Estimate the Population Impact of Emerging Tobacco Products: A Proof-of-Concept Study.

作者信息

Cobb Caroline O, Villanti Andrea C, Graham Amanda L, Pearson Jennifer L, Glasser Allison M, Rath Jessica M, Stanton Cassandra A, Levy David T, Abrams David B, Niaura Raymond

机构信息

Caroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.

出版信息

Tob Regul Sci. 2015 Jul;1(2):129-141.

PMID:41018803
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12462019/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To develop a modeling tool to assess the population impact of emerging tobacco products and demonstrate its utility.

METHODS

Discrete state Markov models were developed using TreeAge Pro 2014 to operationalize and estimate current cigarette and e-cigarette use patterns in the US population (including never and former use). State transition probabilities were calculated from a longitudinal survey of US young adults and adjusted using other nationally representative data.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, the adjusted base case model approximated national cigarette smoking and former use prevalence and predicted e-cigarette and dual use prevalence between 1% and 2%.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof-of-concept study provides a heuristic tool to operationalize aspects of the US Food and Drug Administration's new public health standard regarding the impact of new tobacco products on use of existing products.

摘要

目的

开发一种建模工具，以评估新兴烟草产品对人群的影响并展示其效用。

方法

使用TreeAge Pro 2014开发离散状态马尔可夫模型，以实施和估计美国人群中当前香烟和电子烟的使用模式（包括从不使用和曾经使用）。状态转移概率根据对美国年轻人的纵向调查计算得出，并使用其他全国代表性数据进行调整。

结果

在10年期间，调整后的基础案例模型接近全国吸烟和曾经吸烟的流行率，并预测电子烟和双重使用的流行率在1%至2%之间。

结论

这项概念验证研究提供了一种启发式工具，以实施美国食品药品监督管理局关于新烟草产品对现有产品使用影响的新公共卫生标准的各个方面。

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NIH electronic cigarette workshop: developing a research agenda.美国国立卫生研究院电子烟研讨会：制定研究议程
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Four hundred and sixty brands of e-cigarettes and counting: implications for product regulation.电子烟品牌已达460种且数量还在增加：对产品监管的影响。
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Addiction. 2014 Sep;109(9):1531-40. doi: 10.1111/add.12623.
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Electronic cigarettes: human health effects.电子烟：对人类健康的影响
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