Chan Ho Tung Jeremy, Šimić Ilija, Veas Eduardo
Institute of Human-Centred Computing, Graz University of Technology, Graz, 8010, Austria.
Human-AI Interaction, Know Center Research GmbH, Graz, 8010, Austria.
Sci Rep. 2025 Oct 3;15(1):34515. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-17703-w.
Time series is common across disciplines, however the analysis of time series is not trivial due to inter- and intra-relationships between ordered data sequences. This imposes limitation upon the interpretation and importance estimate of the features within a time series. In the case of multivariate time series, these features are the individual time series and the time steps, which are intertwined. There exist many time series analyses, such as Autocorrelation and Granger Causality, which are based on statistic or econometric approaches. However analyses that can inform the importance of features within a time series are uncommon, especially with methods that utilise embedded methods of neural network (NN). We approach this problem by expanding upon our previous work, Pairwise Importance Estimate Extension (PIEE). We made adaptations toward the existing method to make it compatible with time series. This led to the formulation of aggregated Hadamard product, which can produce an importance estimate for each time point within a multivariate time series. This subsequently allows each time series within a multivariate time series to be interpreted as well. Within this work, we conducted an empirical study with univariate and multivariate time series, where we compared interpretation and importance estimate of features from existing embedded NN approaches, an explainable AI (xAI) approach, and our adapted PIEE approach. We verified interpretation and importance estimate via ground truth or existing domain knowledge when it is available. Otherwise, we conducted an ablation study by retraining the model with Leave-One-Out and Singleton feature subsets to see their contribution towards model performance. Our adapted PIEE method was able to produce various feature importance heatmaps and rankings inline with the ground truth, the existing domain knowledge or the ablation study.
时间序列在各学科中都很常见,然而,由于有序数据序列之间的相互关系和内部关系,时间序列的分析并非易事。这对时间序列中特征的解释和重要性估计施加了限制。在多变量时间序列的情况下,这些特征是相互交织的各个时间序列和时间步长。存在许多基于统计或计量经济学方法的时间序列分析,例如自相关和格兰杰因果关系。然而,能够揭示时间序列中特征重要性的分析并不常见,特别是使用神经网络(NN)嵌入式方法的分析。我们通过扩展我们之前的工作“成对重要性估计扩展”(PIEE)来解决这个问题。我们对现有方法进行了调整,使其与时间序列兼容。这导致了聚合哈达玛积的形成,它可以为多变量时间序列中的每个时间点生成重要性估计。这随后也允许对多变量时间序列中的每个时间序列进行解释。在这项工作中,我们对单变量和多变量时间序列进行了实证研究,比较了现有嵌入式神经网络方法、可解释人工智能(xAI)方法和我们改进的PIEE方法对特征的解释和重要性估计。当有可用的地面真值或现有领域知识时,我们通过它们来验证解释和重要性估计。否则,我们通过使用留一法和单例特征子集重新训练模型来进行消融研究,以查看它们对模型性能的贡献。我们改进的PIEE方法能够生成与地面真值、现有领域知识或消融研究一致的各种特征重要性热图和排名。