McCusker J
Am J Public Health. 1979 Apr;69(4):348-52. doi: 10.2105/ajph.69.4.348.
Children screened for lead poisoning in the Brownsville district of New York City in either summer or winter were followed with blood lead tests for approximately six months to one year from screening to measure longitudinal changes in blood lead level and to identify some determinants of the changes. Only minimal evidence was found of the hypothesized summer rise in blood lead level, while the predominant trend seemed to be for blood lead levels to display statistical regression to the mean. In children found to have low to intermediate blood lead levels (less than 55 microgram/100ml) at screening, variables which were found to predict a rise in blood lead level of 10 microgram/100ml or greater from winter to summer were under age three and/or exposure to paint or plaster.
在纽约市布朗斯维尔区于夏季或冬季接受铅中毒筛查的儿童，从筛查开始起接受了约六个月至一年的血铅检测，以测量血铅水平的纵向变化并确定这些变化的一些决定因素。关于血铅水平在夏季会如假设那样升高，仅发现了极少的证据，而主要趋势似乎是血铅水平呈现向均值的统计回归。在筛查时被发现血铅水平处于低至中等水平（低于55微克/100毫升）的儿童中，被发现可预测血铅水平从冬季到夏季升高10微克/100毫升或更高的变量是三岁以下和/或接触油漆或灰泥。
