Menken J
Demography. 1979 Feb;16(1):103-19.
Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.
最近的几项研究记录了受孕率的季节性模式。在本文中，我们建立了一个生殖过程的数学模型，通过该模型评估受孕率这种变化的影响。研究发现，对生育率的影响可能相当大，但当受孕率存在季节性变化时的出生率，与受孕率恒定在其平均值时计算出的出生率非常接近。这些结果表明，进一步记录受孕率的季节性以及探究这些模式及其变化的原因，是人口统计学研究的一个重要领域。
