Massey D S, Mullan B P
Demography. 1984 Nov;21(4):501-17.
Fertility estimates were calculated using own children data from the Mexican migrant town of Guadalupe, Michoacan. In this town, 75 percent of families have a member working in the United States, and wives are often regularly separated from their migrant husbands. Simulations by Menken (1979) and Bongaarts and Potter (1979) suggest that fertility among these women should be depressed. Our results confirmed this hypothesis, showing that the seasonal absence of migrant husbands disrupted both the level and timing of fertility. However, the effect was greater for legal than for illegal migrants, a pattern that stemmed from social factors as well as physical separation. A logistic regression analysis showed that reductions in birth probabilities are greater the longer a couple is separated, and that these reductions are in the range expected from prior simulations.
生育力估计值是根据墨西哥米却肯州瓜达卢佩这个移民城镇的自有子女数据计算得出的。在这个城镇，75%的家庭有成员在美国工作，妻子们经常与她们的移民丈夫长期分居。门肯（1979年）以及邦加茨和波特（1979年）的模拟研究表明，这些女性的生育力应该会受到抑制。我们的研究结果证实了这一假设，表明移民丈夫的季节性缺席扰乱了生育水平和生育时间。然而，合法移民受到的影响比非法移民更大，这种模式源于社会因素以及实际分居情况。逻辑回归分析表明，夫妻分居时间越长，生育概率降低得就越大，而且这些降低幅度在先前模拟预期的范围内。
