Djerassi C, Shih-Coleman C, Diekman J
Science. 1974 Nov 15;186(4164):596-607. doi: 10.1126/science.186.4164.596.
uman and insect population control have several features in common, all of them indicating that the lag times in converting laboratory discoveries into practical agents are increasing greatly and that ROI calculations are becoming more and more significant in decisions related to the development of new agents. ROI calculations are particularly important in the field of insect control because, by being more specific, the agents of the future are likely to cover smaller markets. Several recommendations for stimulating the development of new methods of insect control are proposed which are addressed primarily to policy-makers. If they are not implemented, then our suggestions should at least stimulate others to make alternative proposals. If neither event occurs, then it is unlikely that there will be any fundamentally new approaches to practical insect control in this decade; a similar prediction (6) that was made 4 years ago in the field of human birth control is rapidly proving to be correct.
人类和昆虫种群控制有几个共同特点,所有这些特点都表明,将实验室发现转化为实用制剂的滞后时间正在大幅增加,并且在与新制剂开发相关的决策中,投资回报率计算变得越来越重要。投资回报率计算在昆虫控制领域尤为重要,因为未来的制剂可能更具针对性,从而覆盖的市场可能更小。本文提出了一些刺激昆虫控制新方法发展的建议,主要针对政策制定者。如果这些建议得不到实施,那么我们的建议至少应能促使其他人提出替代方案。如果这两种情况都不发生,那么在这十年内,实用昆虫控制不太可能出现任何根本性的新方法;四年前在人类节育领域做出的类似预测(6)正迅速被证明是正确的。