Carlsmith J M, Anderson C A
J Pers Soc Psychol. 1979 Mar;37(3):337-44. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.37.3.337.
Prevalent folklore suggests that riots tend to occur during periods of very hot weather. Baron and Ransberger examined 102 major riots in the United States between 1967 and 1971 and concluded that the frequency of collective violence and ambient temperature are curvilinearly related. The present article points out that the Baron and Ransberger analysis did not take account of the different number of days in different temperature ranges. The artifact is eliminated, and the probability of a riot, conditional upon temperature, is estimated. When this is done, the evidence strongly suggests that the conditional probability of a riot increases monotonically with temperature. Some general implications of such data analyses are discussed.
流行的民间说法认为，骚乱往往发生在天气非常炎热的时期。巴伦和兰斯伯格研究了1967年至1971年间美国发生的102起重大骚乱，并得出结论：集体暴力事件的发生频率与环境温度呈曲线关系。本文指出，巴伦和兰斯伯格的分析没有考虑到不同温度范围内的天数差异。这种人为因素被消除了，并估计了在一定温度条件下发生骚乱的概率。当这样做时，证据有力地表明，骚乱的条件概率随温度单调增加。本文还讨论了此类数据分析的一些普遍意义。
