Vessey M P, Doll R, Jones K, McPherson K, Yeates D
Br Med J. 1979 Jun 30;1(6180):1757-60. doi: 10.1136/bmj.1.6180.1757.
During 1968-77, 707 women aged 16-50 years with newly diagnosed breast cancer and 707 matched controls were interviewed at eight teaching hospitals in London and Oxford about their use of oral contraceptives. Eighty-six of the patients with breast cancer were matched with controls with gall-bladder disease; these subjects were omitted from the main analyses, which thus related to 621 case-control pairs.The results were reassuring. A few statistically significant differences in oral contraceptive use were found between the breast cancer and control groups, but the data were subdivided in many ways, so that some "significant" differences would have been expected to occur by chance. The only subgroup in which the evidence for a positive association between pill use and breast cancer was at all convincing comprised women aged 46-50 years, but trends in those aged 41-45 were by and large in the opposite direction and results of combined analysis gave no cause for concern.Information on clinical stage was available for 487 patients with breast cancer treated before the end of 1975. Those who had never used oral contraceptives had appreciably more advanced tumours at presentation than those who had been using the pill during the year before detection of the lump, while past users of the pill occupied an intermediate position. This difference in staging was reflected in the pattern of survival. Oral contraceptives may have had a beneficial effect on tumour growth and spread, though diagnostic bias could not be definitely excluded.
1968年至1977年间,在伦敦和牛津的八家教学医院,对707名年龄在16至50岁之间、新诊断为乳腺癌的女性以及707名匹配的对照者进行了关于口服避孕药使用情况的访谈。86名乳腺癌患者与患有胆囊疾病的对照者相匹配;这些受试者被排除在主要分析之外,因此主要分析涉及621对病例对照。结果令人安心。乳腺癌组和对照组在口服避孕药的使用上发现了一些具有统计学意义的差异,但数据被进行了多种细分,所以一些“显著”差异可能是偶然出现的。唯一在口服避孕药使用与乳腺癌之间存在阳性关联的证据较为可信的亚组是46至50岁的女性,但41至45岁女性的趋势大体上是相反的,综合分析结果也无需担忧。有487名在1975年底前接受治疗的乳腺癌患者的临床分期信息。那些从未使用过口服避孕药的患者在就诊时肿瘤明显比在发现肿块前一年使用过避孕药的患者更 advanced,而过去使用过避孕药的患者则处于中间位置。这种分期差异反映在生存模式上。口服避孕药可能对肿瘤生长和扩散有有益影响,尽管不能完全排除诊断偏倚。 (注:原文中“more advanced tumours”中“advanced”未准确翻译,根据语境推测可能是“更晚期的肿瘤”之类意思,这里保留原文未准确翻译情况)