Katayama K P, Ju K S, Manuel M, Jones G S, Jones H W
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1979 Sep 15;135(2):207-14. doi: 10.1016/0002-9378(79)90345-4.
Since the rate of pregnancy is a function of time, conventional pregnancy rates (number of patients achieving pregnancy per number of patients treated) are inadequate for counseling unless the follow-up period is specified. To overcome this problem, the expectancy of pregnancy for 636 cases of primary infertility was calculated with the assumption that the patients were followed up indefinitely. The overall "conventional" pregnancy rate was 38%, whereas the overall expectancy of pregnancy was 64%. Endometriosis was found to be the most common factor, comprising 25% of the cases, with a pregnancy rate of 31% and an expectancy of 52%. The expectancy of future pregnancy in a patient who has not achieved pregnancy by a given time is presented for each etiologic factor. This paper also presents a comparison of expectancies of pregnancy by different treatments, which may be helpful in selecting appropriate therapy.
由于妊娠率是时间的函数，除非指定随访期，否则传统的妊娠率（每治疗患者数中妊娠患者数）对于咨询来说是不够的。为克服这一问题，在假设对636例原发性不孕症患者进行无限期随访的情况下，计算了其妊娠期望。总体“传统”妊娠率为38%，而总体妊娠期望为64%。发现子宫内膜异位症是最常见的因素，占病例的25%，妊娠率为31%，期望为52%。针对每种病因因素，给出了在给定时间内未妊娠患者未来妊娠的期望。本文还比较了不同治疗方法的妊娠期望，这可能有助于选择合适的治疗方法。
