Hairston N G
Bull World Health Organ. 1965;33(1):45-62.
The concept of the stationary ecological life-table has been applied to populations of the three main species of schistosomes affecting man. In such a system, the net reproductive rate should be equal to 1.0, with reproduction and mortality balancing each other. Calculations are made of net reproduction in both snail and mammal hosts and of the probabilities of transmission from each host to the other. By far the most complete data are those for Schistosoma japonicum, for which the net reproductive rate is calculated as 0.588. The error probably represents the inadequacy of information on rat populations. Using much less complete data, the net reproductive rate for S. mansoni is calculated as 1.85 and for S. haematobium as 2.74. The relative departure from the expected value of 1.0 thus reflects the lack of complete information on the respective parasites. Details of the method and examples of each kind of calculation are given.It is estimated that with adequate data from three or four areas with a range of transmission rates, a predictive model could be constructed for the epidemiology of one species of parasite, and that adequate staff could obtain the necessary data in two-and-a-half years.
静态生态生命表的概念已应用于影响人类的三种主要血吸虫种群。在这样一个系统中，净繁殖率应等于1.0，繁殖和死亡率相互平衡。计算了蜗牛和哺乳动物宿主中的净繁殖率以及从每个宿主传播到另一个宿主的概率。目前最完整的数据是日本血吸虫的数据，其净繁殖率计算为0.588。误差可能代表了关于大鼠种群信息的不足。利用不太完整的数据，曼氏血吸虫的净繁殖率计算为1.85，埃及血吸虫的净繁殖率计算为2.74。因此，与预期值1.0的相对偏差反映了关于各自寄生虫的信息不完整。给出了方法的详细信息和每种计算的示例。据估计，有了来自三四个具有不同传播率地区的充分数据，就可以构建一种寄生虫流行病学的预测模型，而且足够的工作人员可以在两年半内获得必要的数据。
