Variation in annual incidence of primary acute pancreatitis in Nottingham, 1969-74.

A review of the 202 patients admitted to Nottingham hospitals with primary acute pancreatitis during the six years 1969-74 has been undertaken. The City of Nottingham and the four adjacent former urban districts had a population of 469 720 in 1971, and an attempt was made to obtain details of all patients from within this defined population area. 134 of the 202 patients came from this area. The annual incidence varied by 4-fold throughout the six years of the survey from a peak incidence of 83-0 per million population in 1974 to a low incidence of 21-2 per million in 1970. There was no detectable pattern behind this variation and consideration of the individual figures did not suggest that any particular predisposing factor accounted for the variation. Spatial variation analysis is now being undertaken to see if population and environmental subgroups can be identified.