Prevalence of schistosome infections within molluscan populations: observed patterns and theoretical predictions.

The paper draws together a large and scattered body of empirical evidence concerning the prevalence of snail infection with schistosome parasites in field situations, the duration of the latent period of infection in snails (and its dependence on temperature), and the mortality rates of infected and uninfected snails in field and laboratory conditions. A review and synthesis of quantitative data on the population biology of schistosome infections within the molluscan host is attempted and observed patterns of infection are compared with predictions of a schistosomiasis model developed by May (1977) which incorporates differential snail mortality (between infected and uninfected snails) and latent periods of infection. It is suggested that the low levels of prevalence within snail populations in endemic areas of schistosomiasis are closely associated with high rates of infected snail mortality and the duration of the latent period of infection within the mollusc. In certain instances, the expected life-span of an infected snail may be less than the duration of the latent period of infection. Such patterns generate very low levels of parasite prevalence. A new age prevalence model for schistosome infections within snail populations is developed and its predictions compared with observed patterns. The implications of this study of observed and predicted patterns of snail infection within molluscan populations are discussed in relation to the overall transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis.