Olson J G
Trop Geogr Med. 1979 Dec;31(4):519-24.
Daily maximum atmospheric temperatures were used to forecast the seasonal onset of scrub typhus in the Pescadores Islands of Taiwan. The day of the year on which the temperature first reached 30 degrees C was selected as the predictive base. Predictions for 1977 closely matched observed events. The model provides an easy and effective means to forecast the start of scrub typhus epidemics in the Pescadores Islands and could be used for such practical purposes as determining when prophylactic antibiotics should be administered to subjects whose risk of infection with Rickettsia tsutsugamushi is high.
台湾澎湖列岛的每日最高气温被用于预测恙虫病的季节性发病。将一年中气温首次达到30摄氏度的日期选为预测基准。1977年的预测与实际发生的情况紧密相符。该模型为预测澎湖列岛恙虫病疫情的开始提供了一种简便有效的方法，并且可用于诸如确定何时应向感染恙虫病立克次氏体风险较高的人群施用预防性抗生素等实际用途。
