Brown C C
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1978 Jan;60(1):101-8. doi: 10.1093/jnci/60.1.101.
A mathematical model based on the hypothesis that carcinogenesis is a multistage process was proposed for the statistical problem of extrapolating the results of bioassay experiments performed at high dose levels of the carcinogenic risk at lower dose levels. This general multistage model had extrapolation characteristic similar to those of the more specific models that are commonly used; a graphic technique based on statistical likelihood procedures provided a measure of the uncertainty in this extrapolation problem. The examples used were 1) exposure to DES and mammary carcinoma and 2) exposure to DMN and liver carcinoma.
基于致癌作用是一个多阶段过程这一假设，提出了一个数学模型，用于解决将高剂量水平生物测定实验结果外推至低剂量水平致癌风险的统计问题。这个通用的多阶段模型具有与常用的更具体模型相似的外推特征；一种基于统计似然程序的图形技术提供了衡量此外推问题不确定性的方法。所使用的例子为：1）接触己烯雌酚与乳腺癌；2）接触二甲基亚硝胺与肝癌。
