Fries J F
Ann Acad Med Singap. 1983 Jul;12(3):358-67.
The nature of the international health burden, its changes, its problems, and even its solutions over the next quarter century are surprisingly apparent at this time and are more positive than often supposed. The average period of lessened physical status is likely to shorten, and the need for and cost of hospitalization in the later life of the individual is likely to decrease. The period of infirm physical status will become increasingly compressed between the increasing age at onset of infirmity and the genetically determined lifespan of the individual. Illness at the end of life will come relatively suddenly, be multi-factorial in cause, will be highly resistant to further medical intervention, and will be characterized by increasing inevitability. Implications for retirement age, availability of useful work for older individuals, and programmes designed to stimulate rather than support are discussed.
在这个时候，未来四分之一个世纪国际健康负担的性质、其变化、问题乃至解决方案出人意料地清晰可见，且比通常认为的更为积极。身体状况不佳的平均时长可能会缩短，个人晚年住院的需求和费用可能会降低。身体虚弱状态的时期将在虚弱发病年龄不断增加与个体基因决定的寿命之间日益压缩。生命末期的疾病将相对突然地出现，病因是多因素的，对进一步的医疗干预具有高度抗性，并且将表现出越来越高的必然性。文中讨论了对退休年龄、老年人可从事的有益工作以及旨在激励而非扶持的项目的影响。
