Changes in tuberculosis notification rates in ethnic groups in England between 1971 and 1978/79.

Between special surveys in 1971 and 1978/79 the estimated annual tuberculosis notification rate for males in England fell from 30.5 per 100 000 to 22.6 per 100 000 (a decline of 3.8% per year). For females the rate fell from 18.4 per 100 000 to 15.8 per 100 000 (1.9% per year). In each survey the lowest rates were those for the white ethnic group born in the United Kingdom. The highest rates, some more than 50 times as great, occurred in immigrants from the Indian sub-continent (Indian or Pakistani/Bangladeshi). The rates for immigrants from the West Indies were 3 to 4 times as great as than those for the white group. The most rapid reductions in rate between the surveys, of about 10% per year, occurred in West Indian immigrants of both sexes and in Pakistani/Bangladeshi male immigrants. The rate for Pakistani/Bangladeshi females fell by 6.5% per year. For whites born in the U.K. the annual rate of decline was 5.1% in each sex. There was very little change for Indian immigrants of either sex. Between the surveys, continued immigration of groups from the Indian subcontinent with high notification rates considerably slowed the decline in notification rate for the whole population. The steep downward trend in notification rate for the white ethnic group may be expected to continue, but changes in the other ethnic groups are more difficult to assess because they are influenced by so many uncertain factors. In addition, the trends in the non-white ethnic groups born in the United Kingdom cannot yet be ascertained, but will become of increasing importance.