埃塞俄比亚生育率的近期决定因素；对修正的邦加茨模型的应用。
Proximate determinants of fertility in Ethiopia; an application of revised Bongaarts model.
机构信息
School of Public Health, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia.
Department of health information technology, Hossana College of Health Science, Hossana, Ethiopia.
出版信息
Reprod Health. 2019 Feb 4;16(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s12978-019-0677-x.
BACKGROUND
World population is growing at about 80 million people each year. Ethiopia is the 12th most populous country in the world. Existing literatures showed that the role of proximate determinants in inhibiting the total fertility has not yet been determined from the DHS data in the country. This study may provide evidence based information regarding the observed changes in total fertility. The objective of this study was assessing proximate determinants of fertility and the role of selected socio-economic variables in influencing fertility in Ethiopia.
METHODS
The EDHS data of 2011 and 2016 were used in our study. A total of 16,515 eligible women included in 2011 and 15,683 in 2016 surveys made up the sample for the study. The roles of each of the four proximate determinants in declining fertility have been determined. The background variables selected for the analysis include: region of residence, educational status, wealth index and place of residence. The Bongaart model is used to explain the observed socio-economic differentials in fertility during the two survey years.
RESULTS
In 2011, index of marriage inhibited fertility by 37.8%, however in 2016 it inhibited fertility by 34.4%. In 2011, contraceptive use reduced fertility by 28.5% while in 2016 it reduced fertility by 30.7%. The index of postpartum infecundity decreased fertility by 34.7% in 2011 and by 34.5% in 2016. Foetal wastage inhibited fertility by 9.2% in both survey years. The total fertility rate in 2016 was 4.14 whereas the projected total fertility in 2020 will be 3.2 children per woman.
CONCLUSION
Among the four proximate determinants of fertility, the contribution of index of marriage was the highest in inhibiting fertility in 2011. On the other hand, the contribution of postpartum infecundability was the highest in inhibiting fertility in 2016. The contribution of the index of contraceptive in inhibiting fertility increased from 28.5% in 2011 to 30.7% in 2016. The index of foetal wastage contributed the least in both 2011 and 2016 survey years. Therefore, strategies have to be designed to promote the contraceptive use and breast feeding practices among the reproductive women.
背景
世界人口每年以约 8000 万人的速度增长。埃塞俄比亚是世界上人口第 12 多的国家。现有文献表明，在该国的 DHS 数据中，尚未确定近期决定因素在抑制总生育率方面的作用。本研究可能为观察到的总生育率变化提供基于证据的信息。本研究的目的是评估生育的近期决定因素以及选定的社会经济变量在影响埃塞俄比亚生育力方面的作用。
方法
本研究使用了 2011 年和 2016 年的 EDHS 数据。共有 16515 名符合条件的妇女被纳入 2011 年的调查，15683 名妇女被纳入 2016 年的调查，作为研究样本。确定了每个近期决定因素在生育率下降中的作用。为分析选择的背景变量包括：居住地区、教育程度、财富指数和居住地点。邦加特模型用于解释这两年调查期间观察到的社会经济差异生育率。
结果
2011 年，婚姻指数抑制生育率 37.8%，但 2016 年抑制生育率 34.4%。2011 年，避孕药具使用率降低生育率 28.5%，而 2016 年降低生育率 30.7%。产后不孕指数在 2011 年降低生育率 34.7%，在 2016 年降低生育率 34.5%。胎儿死亡抑制生育率 9.2%，在这两年调查中。2016 年的总生育率为 4.14，而 2020 年预计的总生育率将为每位妇女 3.2 个孩子。
结论
在生育的四个近期决定因素中，2011 年婚姻指数对生育率的抑制作用最大。另一方面，产后不孕指数在 2016 年对生育率的抑制作用最大。2011 年避孕药具使用率对生育率的抑制作用从 28.5%增加到 2016 年的 30.7%。胎儿死亡指数在这两年的调查中贡献最小。因此，必须制定战略，促进生育期妇女的避孕药具使用和母乳喂养实践。
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