Kirwan J R, Currey H L
Ann Rheum Dis. 1984 Oct;43(5):695-7. doi: 10.1136/ard.43.5.695.
Seven rheumatologists made judgments about the improvement or deterioration of identical sets of 50 'paper' patients on two occasions one year apart. The stability of their judgments over one year (rs = 0.70) compared favourably with the reliability of duplicate judgments on each occasion (rs = 0.76). Multiple regression analysis of the patient data in relation to the disease assessments provided a model of each clinician's underlying judgment policy. The stability of judgments predicted by these policy models was even higher (rs = 0.83).
七名风湿病专家在相隔一年的两个时间点，对50名“纸质”患者的同一组病例的病情改善或恶化情况进行了判断。他们的判断在一年时间内的稳定性（rs = 0.70）与每次重复判断的可靠性（rs = 0.76）相比，结果不错。对患者数据与疾病评估进行的多元回归分析，得出了每位临床医生潜在判断策略的模型。这些策略模型所预测的判断稳定性甚至更高（rs = 0.83）。
