Poikolainen K
Int J Epidemiol. 1983 Jun;12(2):151-5. doi: 10.1093/ije/12.2.151.
Three experiences familiar to heavy drinkers were related to mortality over a 12-year and 23-year follow-up period. Weibull survival models were used to test the significance of associations and to produce estimates of relative risk. Age and marital status were controlled for by including them into the models, and social class by analysing the data separately for the 462 upper and 1614 lower social group males. The experiences studied were the occurrence of alcohol intoxication, that of hangover, and that of hangover drinking. All three had some prognostic value. Significant associations were found for mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis, cancer of the lung, digestive cancer, coronary heart disease, respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, injuries, and all causes of death. The number of significant associations found over the 23-year follow-up period was smaller than over the 12-year follow-up period.
在12年和23年的随访期内,重度饮酒者熟悉的三种经历与死亡率相关。使用威布尔生存模型来检验关联的显著性并产生相对风险估计值。通过将年龄和婚姻状况纳入模型进行控制,并通过分别分析462名上层社会群体男性和1614名下层社会群体男性的数据来控制社会阶层。所研究的经历包括酒精中毒的发生、宿醉的发生以及宿醉饮酒的发生。这三者都具有一定的预后价值。发现与肺结核、肺癌、消化道癌症、冠心病、呼吸系统疾病、胃肠道疾病、损伤以及所有死因的死亡率存在显著关联。在23年随访期内发现的显著关联数量少于12年随访期内的数量。