Verma B L, Ray S K, Srivastava R N
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1983 Jun;37(2):153-6. doi: 10.1136/jech.37.2.153.
A model, using stochastic processes, is developed to estimate some epidemiological parameters of malaria in a homogeneous population from longitudinal data. Assessments of transition probabilities from one state of health to the other are made taking "lost to follow-up" as a competing risk. The model is based on the assumptions that individuals are transferred at constant rate between states, and only one transition is possible between two consecutive surveys. It shows a good fit to the observed data; the model is simple to understand and can easily be used if computer facilities are not available.
开发了一种使用随机过程的模型，用于根据纵向数据估计同质人群中疟疾的一些流行病学参数。在将“失访”视为竞争风险的情况下，对从一种健康状态到另一种健康状态的转移概率进行评估。该模型基于以下假设：个体在不同状态之间以恒定速率转移，并且在连续两次调查之间只能发生一次转移。它与观察到的数据拟合良好；该模型易于理解，并且在没有计算机设备的情况下也可以轻松使用。
