基于纵向数据的疟疾转变率随机模型：考虑“失访”风险

A stochastic model of malaria transition rates from longitudinal data: considering the risk of "lost to follow-up".

作者信息

Verma B L, Ray S K, Srivastava R N

出版信息

J Epidemiol Community Health. 1983 Jun;37(2):153-6. doi: 10.1136/jech.37.2.153.

DOI:10.1136/jech.37.2.153

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1052281/

Abstract

A model, using stochastic processes, is developed to estimate some epidemiological parameters of malaria in a homogeneous population from longitudinal data. Assessments of transition probabilities from one state of health to the other are made taking "lost to follow-up" as a competing risk. The model is based on the assumptions that individuals are transferred at constant rate between states, and only one transition is possible between two consecutive surveys. It shows a good fit to the observed data; the model is simple to understand and can easily be used if computer facilities are not available.

摘要

开发了一种使用随机过程的模型，用于根据纵向数据估计同质人群中疟疾的一些流行病学参数。在将“失访”视为竞争风险的情况下，对从一种健康状态到另一种健康状态的转移概率进行评估。该模型基于以下假设：个体在不同状态之间以恒定速率转移，并且在连续两次调查之间只能发生一次转移。它与观察到的数据拟合良好；该模型易于理解，并且在没有计算机设备的情况下也可以轻松使用。

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本文引用的文献

1

A simple stochastic model of recovery, relapse, death and loss of patients.一个关于患者康复、复发、死亡和失访的简单随机模型。

Hum Biol. 1951 Sep;23(3):205-41.

2

Stochastic approach to the estimation of infective force and malaria parasite incidence rate in infants from longitudinal data.基于纵向数据的婴儿感染力及疟原虫发病率估计的随机方法。

J Commun Dis. 1980 Sep;12(3):118-25.

3

Estimation of incidence and recovery rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia from longitudinal data.基于纵向数据估计恶性疟原虫血症的发病率和恢复率。

Bull World Health Organ. 1976;54(6):685-93.

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