Bekessy A, Molineaux L, Storey J
Bull World Health Organ. 1976;54(6):685-93.
A method is described of estimating the malaria incidence rate ĥ and the recovery rate r from longitudinal data. The method is based on the assumption that the phenomenon of patent parasitaemia can be represented by a reversible two-state catalytic model; it is applicable to all problems that can be represented by such a model.The method was applied to data on falciparum malaria from the West African savanna and the findings suggested that immunity increases the rate of recovery from patent parasitaemia by a factor of up to 10, and also reduces the number of episodes of patent parasitaemia resulting from one inoculation. Under the effect of propoxur, ĥ varies with the estimated man-biting rate of the vector while r increases, possibly owing to reduced super-infection.
本文描述了一种从纵向数据估计疟疾发病率ĥ和恢复率r的方法。该方法基于这样的假设：显性寄生虫血症现象可用可逆的双态催化模型表示；它适用于所有能用这种模型表示的问题。该方法应用于西非稀树草原恶性疟的数据，结果表明免疫力可使显性寄生虫血症的恢复率提高多达10倍，并且还减少了一次接种导致的显性寄生虫血症发作次数。在残杀威的作用下，ĥ随估计的媒介叮人率而变化，而r增加，这可能是由于重复感染减少所致。
