Method for predicting when children with progressive renal disease may reach high serum creatinine levels.

Optimal planning of therapy for children with progressive renal failure requires accurate prediction of the age at which the serum creatinine (SC) level of the patient will be sufficiently high to warrant dialysis or renal transplantation. In a retrospective study of 29 children with progressive renal disease, linear regressions for each child were developed from the reciprocal of serum creatinine (1/SC) on time. It was found that in children, as in adults, the rate of deterioration of renal function expressed as 1/SC described a linear regression. From the regressions developed, it was determined that predictions using at least six 1/SC values on time would have given acceptable estimates of the age at which dialysis treatment became necessary. With the more precise measurement of SC now available it is likely that even more accurate predictions will be possible in the future.