Age at menarche, probability of ovulation and breast cancer risk.

An analysis is undertaken of the frequency of ovulation in 17 groups of women aged 15 to 19 who had been the subjects of other studies. A urine specimen of at least 8 h accumulation had been provided on the 20th or 21st day of a menstrual cycle by 681 women. Analysis is restricted to 431 specimens which had been collected between 11 and 3 days prior to the onset of the subsequent menstrual period. A pregnanediol concentration of less than 1 mg per litre in such a specimen was taken as evidence that the cycle was anovular. The probability of a cycle being anovular was inversely and significantly related to the number of years since menarche, and, with years since menarche held constant, was positively but not significantly associated with age at menarche. This observation indicates that women with early menarche do not have a longer duration of exposure to anovular cycles than do those whose menarche is delayed, and that variation in the duration of exposure to post-menarcheal anovular cycles does not explain the association of breast cancer risk with early age at menarche. The 17 groups of women were classified into four categories according to ethnic origin and breast cancer incidence in the populations from which they derived. Anovular cycles were not more common in the high-risk groups; indeed, the two centers in the lowest risk category had the highest proportion of anovular cycles.