Fraley E E, Watkins E
J Urol. 1982 Feb;127(2):218-23. doi: 10.1016/s0022-5347(17)53707-6.
Between 1969 and 1978 the number of board-certified urologists increased by 71 per cent, while the population of the United States increased by 8.2 per cent. In 1978 the ratio of board-certified urologists to population was 1:32,416 and 326 of 370 first-year residency positions available in urology in the United States were filled. If we continue to produce urologists at the present rate the urologist to population ratio will be approximately 1:25,972 by year 2000. Thus, it appears that there are now too many urologists being trained yearly, which was indicated by 68 per cent of the academic program directors surveyed in 1979. In fact, to restore the ratio of urologist to population approximately 1:35,000 by year 2000 the number of urologists being trained yearly should be reduced to 156 or by approximately 50 per cent. The only reasonable chance of achieving a reduction in urologists being trained in the near future is by voluntary decreases in the size of training programs. There are many consequences of overproduction of urologists, including unnecessary surgery, atrophy of skills among practitioners and diminution of major training programs because of lack of patient referrals. Therefore, this issue is of equal importance to private practitioners and to academicians.
1969年至1978年间，获得委员会认证的泌尿科医生数量增加了71%，而美国人口仅增加了8.2%。1978年，委员会认证的泌尿科医生与人口的比例为1:32,416，美国370个泌尿外科第一年住院医师职位中有326个被填补。如果我们继续以目前的速度培养泌尿科医生，到2000年，泌尿科医生与人口的比例将约为1:25,972。因此，似乎目前每年培养的泌尿科医生过多，1979年接受调查的68%的学术项目主任也指出了这一点。事实上，为了到2000年将泌尿科医生与人口的比例恢复到大约1:35,000，每年培养的泌尿科医生数量应减少到156名，即减少约50%。在不久的将来，实现减少泌尿科医生培养数量的唯一合理机会是通过自愿减少培训项目的规模。泌尿科医生生产过剩会带来许多后果，包括不必要的手术、从业者技能的萎缩以及由于缺乏患者转诊而导致主要培训项目的缩减。因此，这个问题对私人执业医生和学者同样重要。
