Zajicek G
Med Hypotheses. 1982 Jan;8(1):1-10. doi: 10.1016/0306-9877(82)90086-x.
Incubation times of cancers whose initiation can be estimated relatively, precisely are distributed log-normally. This distribution is associated with a biphasic risk function, initially climbing to decline again after a certain period. A declining risk of contracting cancer implies further that the patient's chances of withstanding cancer improve with time. A similar declining risk function was also observed in age specific cancer incidence curves. At the age of 30 years they all rise exponentially to level off at old age. In some cancers e.g. bronchial or female genital, the curves even decline. The risk functions associated with them follow a similar course. Such may not be the case in some chronic systemic diseases, e.g. arteriosclerosis, in which the risk function never declines so that the patient's resistance to this disease is smaller than that observed in cancer. The declining risk proceeds even during the clinical phase of cancer as evident from two sources o data 1. Age specific cancer mortality curves exhibit the same pattern associated with a biphasic risk function and, 2. survival curves of cancer patients inhibit a declining risk function. The mounting resistance with time observed in cancer is observable in any disease, infectious as well chronic systemic.
那些起始时间能够相对精确估算的癌症，其潜伏期呈对数正态分布。这种分布与双相风险函数相关，起初上升，在一段时间后再次下降。患癌风险下降还意味着患者抵御癌症的几率会随着时间提高。在特定年龄的癌症发病率曲线中也观察到了类似的下降风险函数。在30岁时，它们都呈指数上升，到老年时趋于平稳。在某些癌症中，如支气管癌或女性生殖系统癌症，曲线甚至会下降。与之相关的风险函数也遵循类似的趋势。在一些慢性全身性疾病中，如动脉硬化，情况可能并非如此，其风险函数从不下降，因此患者对这种疾病的抵抗力比在癌症中观察到的要小。从两个数据来源可以明显看出，即使在癌症的临床阶段，风险也在下降：1. 特定年龄的癌症死亡率曲线呈现出与双相风险函数相关的相同模式；2. 癌症患者的生存曲线显示出下降的风险函数。在任何疾病中，无论是传染病还是慢性全身性疾病，都能观察到癌症中随时间增加的抵抗力。
