Smith P G
Tubercle. 1982 Mar;63(1):23-35. doi: 10.1016/s0041-3879(82)80006-8.
It is proposed that case-control studies might be used to assess the effect on the incidence of tuberculosis of the mass BCG vaccination campaigns that were conducted in many countries in Africa and Asia from the 1950s onwards. The cost of such studies would be relatively small and they could be completed within a year or two. The results would assist countries in planning their future strategies for tuberculosis control and information on the variation in the protective effect of BCG in a number of different areas in less developed countries may give clues to the reasons for such variation. It is suggested that case-control studies should be designed to include about 200 cases and 3 or 4 times as many controls. The cases should be selected for age such that at the time of the mass vaccination campaign they will have been in an age group in which 20% or less were tuberculin positive. The same approach may be used to assess the effectiveness of giving BCG at birth, provided that this policy has been adopted for some years, coverage has been good (about 50% to 80%) and there are reasonable facilities for diagnosing tuberculosis in children.
有人提议，可以利用病例对照研究来评估20世纪50年代起在非洲和亚洲许多国家开展的大规模卡介苗接种运动对结核病发病率的影响。此类研究成本相对较小，可在一两年内完成。研究结果将有助于各国规划未来的结核病控制策略，而关于卡介苗在欠发达国家一些不同地区保护效果差异的信息，可能为这种差异的原因提供线索。建议病例对照研究应设计为纳入约200例病例以及3至4倍数量的对照。病例应按年龄进行选择，以便在大规模接种运动时，他们处于结核菌素阳性率为20%或更低的年龄组。如果在出生时接种卡介苗的政策已实施数年、覆盖率良好（约50%至80%）且有合理的儿童结核病诊断设施，同样的方法可用于评估出生时接种卡介苗的效果。
