Espenshade T J, Tayman J M
Demography. 1982 May;19(2):191-210.
This paper develops a methodology for constructing confidence intervals around postcensal state population estimates. Using regression equations, forecast intervals are derived around the average age-specific death rates over the postcensal estimation period. These results, combined with the number of postcensal deaths and the most current census counts, are translated into confidence intervals for the age structure. Two approaches are offered for constructing total population confidence intervals. One examines a simulated distribution while the other focuses on the mathematical derivation of population means and variances. The methodology is illustrated by deriving statistically defensible confidence intervals around the July 1, 1975 population of Florida.
本文开发了一种方法，用于构建普查后各州人口估计值的置信区间。利用回归方程，得出普查后估计期内特定年龄死亡率平均值的预测区间。这些结果与普查后死亡人数和最新的人口普查数据相结合，转化为年龄结构的置信区间。文中提供了两种构建总人口置信区间的方法。一种方法研究模拟分布，另一种方法则侧重于总体均值和方差的数学推导。通过推导1975年7月1日佛罗里达州人口的具有统计学依据的置信区间，对该方法进行了说明。
