Farchi G, Capocaccia R, Verdecchia A, Menotti A, Keys A
Int J Epidemiol. 1981 Mar;10(1):31-40. doi: 10.1093/ije/10.1.31.
Data from the Seven Countries Study are analysed to examine the relationship between the observed incidence of Coronary Heart Disease in the second 5-year period of follow-up and the major entry risk factors and their changes over the first 5 years. The analysis, using the Multiple Logistic Function model, shows that changes in systolic blood pressure and smoking habits are significant factors associated with incidence, while changes in cholesterol and body mass index do not play this role. This conclusion applies to the population as a whole. A more detailed analysis, stratifying the population by estimated risk at entry and changes of risk over 5 years, shows that incidence is related to changes of risk in low and medium entry risk groups. Moreover, a univariate analysis of data limited to systolic blood pressure and cholesterol indicates that changes in blood pressure are related to incidence in the group with highest entry level of blood pressure, while changes in cholesterol are irrelevant to subsequent incidence.
对七国研究的数据进行分析，以检验在第二个5年随访期观察到的冠心病发病率与主要的初始风险因素及其在第一个5年中的变化之间的关系。使用多元逻辑函数模型进行的分析表明，收缩压和吸烟习惯的变化是与发病率相关的重要因素，而胆固醇和体重指数的变化则不具有此作用。这一结论适用于全体人群。通过根据初始估计风险和5年内风险变化对人群进行分层的更详细分析表明，发病率与低、中初始风险组的风险变化有关。此外，对仅限于收缩压和胆固醇的数据进行单变量分析表明，血压变化与血压初始水平最高的组中的发病率相关，而胆固醇变化与随后的发病率无关。
