Association between dietary changes and mortality rates: Israel 1949 to 1977; a trend-free regression model.

This paper presents a trend-free regression model for analyzing the effect of changes in food intake on disease specific mortality rates. The statistical effect of changes in food consumption of the Israeli population during 1949 to 1977 on concurrent mortality rates from cancer, heart disease, peptic ulcer, and diabetes mellitus were investigated by the suggested model. The regression analyses reveal the following: 1) The major statistical effects of progressive dietary changes (during 28 yr) on mortality rates lagged by 1 or 2 yr. 2) None of the variables was consistently and statistically significantly related to cancer mortality. 3) Vitamin A was consistently in statistically significant negative association with mortality rates. This suggests that increased consumption of vitamin A may prove to reduce mortality rates due to heart disease and peptic ulcer. 4) All the investigated mortality rates were in statistically significant positive association with increasing total fat consumption. Mortality rates of ischemic heart disease as well as of hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases were in positive association with both plant fat and animal fat. These findings suggest that reduced total fat intake may prove to reduce the investigated mortality rates. 5) Diabetes mellitus was in statistically significant inverse association with the average per capital consumption of fruits and vegetables. Our results suggest that increased carbohydrate consumption may reduce diabetes mellitus mortality. The above hypotheses derived from the model and the general utility of the model may be demonstrated by studies of data from other countries.