[Risk of ischemic heart disease development in 45- to 59-year-old men. The results of a 5-year observation in the Kaunas population study].

The possibility of prognosticating the development of ischemic heart disease in persons clinically healthy in respect of this illness was studied. The data on 1,977 males were used, among whom, according to the registers of myocardial infarction and deaths, 34 had suffered from ischemic heart disease in a follow-up period of 5 years. The prognosis was made on the basis of logistic function and the following 6 signs: age, systolic pressure, cholesterol content, smoking, blood sugar level, body mass index. In the upper decile of the assessment of the probability of ischemic heart disease development, 47% of cases with this disease were encountered, i. e. 10% of clinically healthy individuals were distinguished among whom the risk of the development of ischemic heart disease was 8 times that among the remaining persons (0.081 and 0.01, respectively).