Gray M D, Martin S W
Can J Comp Med. 1980 Jan;44(1):52-60.
Data were collected from approximately 1000 dairy herds, initially blood tested for brucellosis in 1977, in each of southeastern and southwestern Ontario. These data were used to evaluate three brucellosis screening programs, the area recertification program, the market cow program and the milk test program. The milk test program was the most efficient program at detecting brucellosis, 29.5% of the herds tested were classified as infected, but lacked the ability to detect a large proportion of "infected" herds (relative sensitivity = 24%). The market cow program was more efficient than the area recertification program at finding infected herds, 3.9% of the herds tested under the market cow program were infected, but had a low relative sensitivity of 12%. The area recertification program was least efficient, 2.3% of herds tested under the area recertification program were infected, but had the highest relative sensitivity (53%). The relative efficiency (predictive value) of the programs was not affected significantly by location of the herds, season of the initial test or herd size. The relative sensitivity of the milk test program was significantly higher in eastern than western Ontario and tended to decrease as herd size increased. The market cow program tended to be more sensitive in the summer months. The relative specificity of the milk test program (0.997) was higher than that of the market cow program (0.960) and the area recertification program (0.884).
数据收集自安大略省东南部和西南部的约1000个奶牛场，这些奶牛场最初于1977年接受了布鲁氏菌病血液检测。这些数据用于评估三种布鲁氏菌病筛查项目，即区域重新认证项目、市场奶牛项目和牛奶检测项目。牛奶检测项目在检测布鲁氏菌病方面是最有效的项目，29.5%的检测牛群被归类为感染，但缺乏检测大部分“感染”牛群的能力（相对灵敏度=24%）。市场奶牛项目在发现感染牛群方面比区域重新认证项目更有效，在市场奶牛项目下检测的牛群中有3.9%被感染，但相对灵敏度较低，为12%。区域重新认证项目效率最低，在区域重新认证项目下检测的牛群中有2.3%被感染，但相对灵敏度最高（53%）。这些项目的相对效率（预测值）不受牛群位置、初次检测季节或牛群规模的显著影响。牛奶检测项目的相对灵敏度在安大略省东部明显高于西部，并且往往随着牛群规模的增加而降低。市场奶牛项目在夏季往往更敏感。牛奶检测项目的相对特异性（0.997）高于市场奶牛项目（0.960）和区域重新认证项目（0.884）。
