Five-year follow-up of maximal treadmill stress test in asymptomatic men and women.

A five-year follow-up of 888 asymptomatic men and women without known coronary heart disease (CHD) who had a maximal treadmill stress test (MTST) revealed a CHD incidence of 1.1% per year. In women, exercise duration of 3 minutes or less by the Ellestad protocol correlated with subsequent development of CHD (p less than 0.001), although abnormal ST-segment and R-wave responses did not. In men 40 years of age or younger, the MTST did not correlate with subsequent CHD. In men older than 40 years, ischemic ST response (p less than 0.01), an increase or no change in R wave (p less than 0.01), and an exercise duration of 5 minutes of less (p less than 0.001) all correlated with subsequent development of CHD. Five of five men (100%) who had all three criteria developed CHD within 5 years. When men older than 40 years who had all three criteria either present or absent were considered, specificity was 100%. The sensitivity, specificity, predictive value of an abnormal test, and risk ratio for developing CHD within 5 years for the various MTST criteria alone and in combination are tabulated.