Bliss J P, Gilson R D, Deaton J E
Psychology Department, University of Alabama at Huntsville 35899, USA.
Ergonomics. 1995 Nov;38(11):2300-12. doi: 10.1080/00140139508925269.
The goals of this research were to substantiate the existence of the cry-wolf effect for alarm responses, quantifying its effect on operator performance. A total of 138 undergraduate students performed two blocks of a cognitively demanding psychomotor primary task; at the same time, they were presented with alarms of varying reliabilities (25, 50 and 75% true alarms) and urgencies (green, yellow and red visual alarms presented concurrently with low-, medium- and high-urgency auditory civilian aircraft cockpit alarms). Alarm response frequencies were observed and analysed, and t-tests and repeated-measures MANOVAs were used to assess the effects of increasing alarm reliability on alarm response frequencies, speed and accuracy. The results indicate that most subjects (about 90%) do not respond to all alarms but match their response rates to the expected probability of true alarms (probability matching). About 10% of the subjects responded in the extreme, utilizing an all-or-none strategy. Implications of these results for alarm design instruction and further research are discussed.
本研究的目的是证实警报响应中“狼来了”效应的存在，并量化其对操作员绩效的影响。共有138名本科生执行了两个认知要求较高的心理运动主要任务模块；与此同时，他们会收到不同可靠性（25%、50%和75%的真实警报）和紧急程度（同时呈现绿色、黄色和红色视觉警报，以及低、中、高紧急程度的民用航空驾驶舱听觉警报）的警报。观察并分析警报响应频率，并使用t检验和重复测量多变量方差分析来评估警报可靠性增加对警报响应频率、速度和准确性的影响。结果表明，大多数受试者（约90%）并非对所有警报都做出响应，而是使其响应率与真实警报的预期概率相匹配（概率匹配）。约10%的受试者采取极端反应，采用全有或全无的策略。讨论了这些结果对警报设计指导和进一步研究的意义。
