Elvik R
Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 1995 Aug;27(4):523-49. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(95)00003-i.
Evidence from 32 studies that have evaluated the safety effects of median barriers, guardrails along the edge of the road, and crash cushions (impact attenuators) is summarized by means of a meta-analysis. Two hundred and thirty-two (232) estimates of safety effects are included in the meta-analysis. The presence of publication bias is tested by means of the funnel graph method. For most subsets of the data, no evidence of publication bias is found. Weighted mean estimates of safety effects are computed by means of the logodds method. Median barriers are found to increase accident rate, but reduce accident severity. Guardrails and crash cushions are found to reduce both accident rate and accident severity. The effects of guardrails and crash cushions on accident rate have been less extensively studied than the effects on accident severity. Current estimates of the effects on accident rate are highly uncertain because of methodological shortcomings of available studies. The effects of guardrails on accident severity are found to be quite robust with respect to study design and the number of confounding variables controlled in each study. In general, random variation in the number of accidents is the most important source of variation in study results.
通过一项荟萃分析总结了32项评估中央分隔带、路侧护栏和碰撞缓冲垫(冲击衰减器)安全效果的研究证据。该荟萃分析纳入了232个安全效果估计值。采用漏斗图法检验发表偏倚的存在。对于大多数数据子集,未发现发表偏倚的证据。通过对数优势法计算安全效果的加权平均估计值。发现中央分隔带会增加事故率,但会降低事故严重程度。发现护栏和碰撞缓冲垫既能降低事故率,又能降低事故严重程度。与对事故严重程度的影响相比,对护栏和碰撞缓冲垫对事故率影响的研究较少。由于现有研究的方法缺陷,目前对事故率影响的估计极不确定。发现护栏对事故严重程度的影响在研究设计和每项研究中控制的混杂变量数量方面相当稳健。一般来说,事故数量的随机变化是研究结果变化的最重要来源。