Mehmandar Mohammadreza, Soori Hamid, Mehrabi Yadolah
Department of Deputy Research, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Department of Traffic Police NAJA, Rahvar Research Center Tehran, Iran.
Department of Deputy Research, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Int J Crit Illn Inj Sci. 2016 Apr-Jun;6(2):74-8. doi: 10.4103/2229-5151.183017.
Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences.
Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.
It was a cross-sectional study.
All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model.
From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015.
From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.
预测交通事故死亡趋势并进行分析，可为规划和政策制定、开展与死亡趋势相适应的干预措施以及采取控制和预防未来事故发生所需的必要行动提供有用工具。
预测和分析2014年及2015年伊朗交通事故死亡趋势。
这是一项横断面研究。
利用伊朗法定医学组织数据库中2004年至2013年底所有与致命交通事故相关的信息来确定变化点（多变量时间序列分析）。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测2014年和2015年的交通事故死亡率，并将该率与预测值进行比较以确定模型的有效性。
结果显示，2014年的实际死亡率与该年记录的死亡率几乎相似，而2015年所有月份与上一年（2014年）相比有所下降。2015年1月和2月的预测最大值也为41%。
通过对死亡趋势的预测和分析，合理应用并持续采用前几年为改善道路安全、提高机动车安全性所开展的干预措施，特别是培训和文化培育干预措施，以及批准和执行威慑性法规以改变组织行为，可显著减少交通事故造成的损失。
