Diagnostic accuracy of predicting coronary artery disease related to patients' characteristics.

Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics may affect diagnostic accuracy of cardiologists. We asked a group of experienced cardiologists from three institutions to estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in 257 patients referred for diagnostic coronary angiography and with no history of previous myocardial infarction nor valvular heart disease. Physicians pretest estimates were compared with the diagnostic findings of coronary angiography. We tested the influence of five variables on the accuracy of the pretest estimates: age, sex, chest pain characteristics, rest electrocardiogram and electrocardiographic exercise test result. Cardiologists tended to overestimate the presence of coronary artery disease and this tendency was particularly remarkable in the group of patients showing a negative exercise test. Pretest diagnostic accuracy was 0.72 when the test result was negative and 0.85 when the test result was positive (95% confidence interval of the difference 0.03 to 0.23; p < 0.001). The diagnosis of coronary artery disease was also more accurate for male than for female patients (0.81 vs 0.70; 95% confidence interval of the difference 0.02 to 0.21; p < 0.02). Characteristics of chest pain, age and rest electrocardiogram did not affect the level of pretest diagnostic accuracy. Cardiologists should be cognizant of correctly interpreting a negative exercise test and the clinical data of female patients; in both cases, they should move circumspect of the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.