Benichou J, Gail M H
National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland 20892, USA.
Biometrics. 1995 Mar;51(1):182-94.
The absolute risk is the probability of developing a given disease over a specified time interval given age and risk factors. Gail, et al. (1989, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 81, 1879-1888) obtained point estimates from population-based case control data by combining relative risk estimates from the case control data and composite incidence estimates from the cohort data. They also obtained variance estimates, but they only took into account the variability in estimating relative risks. In this paper, we present variance estimates that take into account all components of variability, namely the variance of relative risk estimates and of baseline incidence estimates, as well as the covariance between the two, the latter term being obtained by using implicit delta method arguments (Benichou and Gail, 1989, The American Statistician 43, 41-44). Simulations demonstrate the validity of such variance estimates as well as of corresponding confidence intervals. These methods are applied to a population-based case control study of breast cancer.
绝对风险是指在给定年龄和风险因素的情况下，在特定时间间隔内患某种特定疾病的概率。盖尔等人（1989年，《国家癌症研究所杂志》81卷，第1879 - 1888页）通过将病例对照数据中的相对风险估计值与队列数据中的综合发病率估计值相结合，从基于人群的病例对照数据中获得了点估计值。他们还获得了方差估计值，但只考虑了估计相对风险时的变异性。在本文中，我们给出了考虑所有变异性成分的方差估计值，即相对风险估计值和基线发病率估计值的方差，以及两者之间的协方差，后一项是通过使用隐式德尔塔方法论证得到的（贝尼舒和盖尔，1989年，《美国统计学家》43卷，第41 - 44页）。模拟结果证明了这种方差估计值以及相应置信区间的有效性。这些方法应用于一项基于人群的乳腺癌病例对照研究。
