Baillie A J, Mattick R P, Hall W
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney.
Aust J Public Health. 1995 Apr;19(2):129-31. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.1995.tb00361.x.
The rates (after 12 months' follow-up) of unassisted smoking cessation reported in the literature have varied from 13.8 per cent to 8.5 per cent. A meta-analysis was conducted of the abstinence rates observed in 14 samples of smokers who presented at primary health settings and received either no intervention aimed at smoking or usual care (which involved no deliberate intervention for smoking cessation). The estimated rate of stopping smoking without intervention, over an average 10-month period, was 7.33 per cent. This rate is consistent with others reported in the literature when motivation to quit is taken into account. The estimate provides a baseline to judge the effects of smoking-cessation interventions.
文献报道的（随访12个月后）无辅助戒烟率在13.8%至8.5%之间。对在初级卫生保健机构就诊且未接受任何戒烟干预或常规护理（不涉及故意戒烟干预）的14组吸烟者样本的戒烟率进行了荟萃分析。在平均10个月的时间里，未经干预的估计戒烟率为7.33%。考虑到戒烟动机时，该比率与文献中其他报道一致。该估计值为判断戒烟干预措施的效果提供了基线。
