Kalivianakis M, Mous S L, Grasman J
Department of Mathematics, Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Math Biosci. 1994 Dec;124(2):225-34. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(94)90044-2.
With the extended Kalman filter the time dependent contact rate for measles in the SEIR-model is reconstructed from data of the incidence of this infectious disease in the city of New York. It is concluded that although these data show through the years an irregular change in the number of infected children the contact rate is definitely periodic and follows the season. The analysis gives improved values of the parameters in the SEIR-model for this special problem.
利用扩展卡尔曼滤波器，从纽约市这种传染病的发病率数据中重建了SEIR模型中麻疹随时间变化的接触率。得出的结论是，尽管这些数据显示多年来感染儿童的数量有不规则变化，但接触率肯定是周期性的且随季节变化。该分析给出了针对此特殊问题的SEIR模型中参数的改进值。
