Bolker B
Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, UK.
IMA J Math Appl Med Biol. 1993;10(2):83-95. doi: 10.1093/imammb/10.2.83.
Recurrent epidemics of measles in developed countries offer a proving ground for current theories of complicated dynamics in ecological and epidemiological systems. This paper contrasts the basic forced SEIR model for measles with a variety of more complicated and realistic models, showing that variations in seasonal forcing and age-structured mixing patterns can generate a wide range of global dynamics. The well-known chaotic dynamics of the forced SEIR model appear to be absent from more realistic models, suppressed by the buffering effect of a low-risk group of pre-school children. These results, and the variety of measles dynamics seen in real populations with different demographic and geographic patterns, point out the need for age- and spatially-structured measles models and suggest caution in the construction of models for complicated systems.
发达国家中反复出现的麻疹疫情为当前关于生态和流行病学系统复杂动态的理论提供了一个试验场。本文将麻疹的基本强迫SEIR模型与各种更复杂、更现实的模型进行了对比，表明季节性强迫和年龄结构混合模式的变化可以产生广泛的全球动态。强迫SEIR模型中众所周知的混沌动态在更现实的模型中似乎不存在，被低风险学龄前儿童群体的缓冲效应所抑制。这些结果，以及在具有不同人口和地理模式的实际人群中看到的各种麻疹动态，指出了构建年龄和空间结构麻疹模型的必要性，并建议在构建复杂系统模型时要谨慎。
