Mathematical modelling of the growth, survival and death of Yersinia enterocolitica.

This paper discusses the development of a novel mathematical equation capable of handling the growth, survival and death of microorganisms. The equation was used in combination with second-order polynomials to fit a response surface to data representing the growth, survival and death of Yersinia enterocolitica as affected by temperature (0-30 degrees C), sodium chloride (0-10.5% w/v), pH (3.5-7.0) and undissociated lactic acid (0-9.63 g/l). The resulting predictive model showed a good correlation over the entire range of the experimental data. Predictions from the model have been compared with independent data from both published literature and inoculated food studies. Analysis of the results showed a good correlation, particularly for data from milk and meat products.