Peterson S R
Environmental Research Branch, Chalk River Laboratories, Ontario.
Health Phys. 1995 Apr;68(4):539-45. doi: 10.1097/00004032-199504000-00011.
Although models for calculating derived emission limits have been around for many years, the opportunity to test them against independent data sets did not arise until the Biospheric Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS) was organized in 1985. Within BIOMOVS, two scenarios tested predictions of the movement of 131I and 137Cs from air to soil, pasture, milk, and beef. One of these scenarios was a model intercomparison of a chronic release over 30 y. The second scenario, using data gathered world-wide after the Chernobyl accident, allowed predictions to be compared directly with observations. The Canadian Standards Association's Guidelines for Calculating Derived Release Limits for Radioactive Material in Airborne and Liquid Effluents for Normal Operation of Nuclear Facilities was tested in both these scenarios to see whether its predictions were suitably conservative, as they should be for a screening model. A comparison was made between results of the Canadian Standards Association's model and those of other screening models on the one hand and results of models attempting to predict best estimates on the other hand. This analysis shows that often screening models are not conservative, and thus there should be much more effort to test the models against observations.
尽管用于计算导出排放限值的模型已经存在多年，但直到1985年组织了生物圈模型验证研究（BIOMOVS），才有机会根据独立数据集对这些模型进行测试。在BIOMOVS中，有两个情景测试了131I和137Cs从空气到土壤、牧草、牛奶和牛肉的迁移预测。其中一个情景是对30年慢性释放的模型相互比较。第二个情景利用切尔诺贝利事故后在全球收集的数据，使预测能够直接与观测结果进行比较。加拿大标准协会的《核设施正常运行时空气中和液体流出物中放射性物质导出释放限值的计算指南》在这两个情景中都进行了测试，以查看其预测是否足够保守，因为对于筛选模型来说应该如此。一方面比较了加拿大标准协会模型与其他筛选模型的结果，另一方面比较了试图预测最佳估计值的模型的结果。该分析表明，筛选模型往往并不保守，因此应该付出更多努力根据观测结果对模型进行测试。
