Peterson S R, Hoffman F O, Köhler H
Environmental Research Branch, AECL, Chalk River Laboratories, Chalk River, Ontario, Canada.
Health Phys. 1996 Aug;71(2):149-59. doi: 10.1097/00004032-199608000-00005.
A unique opportunity to test dose assessment models arose after the Chernobyl reactor accident. During the passage of the contaminated plume, concentrations of 131I and 137Cs in air, pasture, and cow's milk were collected at various sites in the northern hemisphere. Afterwards, contaminated pasture and milk samples were analyzed over time. Under the auspices of the Biospheric Model Validation Study (BIOMOVS), data from 13 sites for 131I and 10 sites for 137Cs were used to test model predictions for the air-pasture-cow milk pathway. Calculations were submitted for 23 models, 10 of which were quasi-steady state. The others were time-dependent. Daily predictions and predictions of time-integrated concentrations of 131I and 137Cs in pasture grass and milk for six months post-accident were calculated and compared with observed data. Testing against data from several locations over time for several steps in the air-to-milk pathway resulted in a better understanding of important processes and how they should be modeled. This model testing exercise showed both the strengths and weaknesses of the models and revealed the importance of testing all parts of dose assessment models whenever possible.
切尔诺贝利反应堆事故后出现了一个测试剂量评估模型的独特机会。在受污染羽状物飘过期间，在北半球的不同地点收集了空气、牧场和牛奶中131I和137Cs的浓度。之后，对受污染的牧场和牛奶样本进行了长期分析。在生物地球化学模型验证研究（BIOMOVS）的支持下，来自13个131I监测点和10个137Cs监测点的数据被用于测试空气-牧场-牛奶途径的模型预测。提交了23个模型的计算结果，其中10个为准稳态模型，其他为时间相关模型。计算了事故后六个月内牧场草和牛奶中131I和137Cs的每日预测值以及时间积分浓度预测值，并与观测数据进行了比较。通过对空气到牛奶途径中多个步骤的多个地点随时间的数据进行测试，更好地理解了重要过程以及应如何对其进行建模。这次模型测试展示了模型的优缺点，并揭示了尽可能对剂量评估模型的所有部分进行测试的重要性。
