Gentleman R C, Lawless J F, Lindsey J C, Yan P
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
Stat Med. 1994 Apr 30;13(8):805-21. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780130803.
Multi-state Markov models can be useful in analysing disease history data. We apply the general estimation methods of Kalbfleisch and Lawless to panel data in which individuals are viewed over only a portion of their life history and complete information about transition times between states is unavailable. Methods to assess goodness-of-fit are proposed. To illustrate the methods, we consider models of HIV disease relating important immunological marker measurements to the onset of AIDS.
多状态马尔可夫模型在分析疾病史数据方面可能会很有用。我们将卡尔弗莱施和劳利斯的一般估计方法应用于面板数据，在这些数据中，个体仅在其生命史的一部分时间内被观察，并且无法获得关于状态之间转换时间的完整信息。我们提出了评估拟合优度的方法。为了说明这些方法，我们考虑了将重要免疫标志物测量与艾滋病发病相关联的艾滋病毒疾病模型。
