Hoffmann E R, Mortimer R G
Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 1994 Aug;26(4):511-20. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)90042-6.
Drivers' estimates of time to collision were determined in a laboratory simulation using film segments made from a following vehicle approaching a lead vehicle, which was also in motion. Headway, approach speed, and viewing time were varied to make a total of 48 conditions. It was found that, provided the angular velocity subtended by the lead vehicle was above a threshold value of about .003 radians/sec, the driver was able to give reasonable estimates of time to collision. The standard deviation of the estimates varied linearly with the time to collision. Although drivers underestimated the time to collision when it was small, the large standard deviation shows the possibility of rear-end collisions due to poor estimation of time to collision, especially when the times for control action and vehicle deceleration are considered.
通过实验室模拟来确定驾驶员对碰撞时间的估计，该模拟使用了从跟随车辆接近正在行驶的前车的影片片段。改变车间距、接近速度和观察时间，共设置了48种条件。研究发现，只要前车所张的角速度高于约0.003弧度/秒的阈值，驾驶员就能对碰撞时间做出合理估计。估计值的标准差与碰撞时间呈线性变化。尽管在碰撞时间较短时驾驶员会低估它，但较大的标准差表明，由于对碰撞时间估计不佳，尤其是考虑到控制动作和车辆减速时间时，存在追尾碰撞的可能性。
