Likhtarev I A, Gulko G M, Sobolev B G, Kairo I A, Chepurnoy N I, Pröhl G, Henrichs K
Ukrainian Scientific Center of Radiation Medicine, Kiev.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 1994;33(2):149-66. doi: 10.1007/BF01219338.
Based on the results of 131I thyroid activity measurements in three districts of the Chernigov region (Ukraine), individual doses were calculated and an approach of the age dependence of the average thyroid exposure was derived. Using the relationships between the thyroid doses and the 137Cs deposition as well as the location relative to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), age-dependent average thyroid doses were extrapolated also for those settlements of this region where no monitoring measurements have been carried out. The highest doses were found in the west of the region with the lowest distance to the Chernobyl NPP. In this part, the highest mean of the thyroid dose in a settlement was 3.3 Gy for infants and 0.5 Gy for adults. The collective thyroid dose was 31,000 and 27,000 person-Gy for children and adults, respectively. Based on this assessment, 140 and 21 excess thyroid cancer cases are predicted for children and adults, respectively. In the years 1989 to 1991, in the whole contaminated territory of the Ukraine 0.4-1.2 cases per 100,000 children were observed. Although the absolute numbers are very small, this indicates the possibility of an increase in thyroid cancer morbidity among children. The same trend also seems to be indicated in the Chernigov region. A careful epidemiological study in the future is necessary to enable a final evaluation of radioinduced cancers in this region.
根据在切尔尼戈夫地区（乌克兰）三个区进行的¹³¹I甲状腺活度测量结果，计算了个人剂量，并得出了平均甲状腺暴露的年龄依赖性方法。利用甲状腺剂量与¹³⁷Cs沉积量之间的关系以及相对于切尔诺贝利核电站（NPP）的位置，还对该地区未进行监测测量的那些定居点推算出了年龄依赖性平均甲状腺剂量。在该地区距离切尔诺贝利核电站最近的西部发现了最高剂量。在这一区域，一个定居点中婴儿的甲状腺剂量最高平均值为3.3 Gy，成人为0.5 Gy。儿童和成人的集体甲状腺剂量分别为31,000和27,000人·戈瑞。基于这一评估，预计儿童和成人分别会有140例和21例额外的甲状腺癌病例。在1989年至1991年期间，在乌克兰整个受污染地区，每10万名儿童中观察到0.4 - 1.2例病例。尽管绝对数字非常小，但这表明儿童甲状腺癌发病率有可能上升。切尔尼戈夫地区似乎也呈现出同样的趋势。未来有必要进行仔细的流行病学研究，以便对该地区的辐射诱发癌症进行最终评估。
