Parkin D M, Pisani P, Lopez A D, Masuyer E
Unit of Descriptive Epidemiology, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Int J Cancer. 1994 Nov 15;59(4):494-504. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910590411.
Tobacco smoking is accepted as a major cause of cancers of the lung, larynx, oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, pancreas, kidney and bladder. The proportions of these cancers that are due to smoking were estimated for the year 1985 for 24 areas of the world. Fifteen percent--1.1 million new cases per year--of all cancer cases are attributed to cigarette smoking, 25% in men and 4% in women. In developed countries, the tobacco burden is estimated at 16% of all annual incident cases. In developing countries, the corresponding figure is 10%. In total, 85% of the 676,000 cases of lung cancer in men are attributable to tobacco smoking. The highest attributable fractions (AF: 90-93%) are estimated in areas where the habit of cigarette smoking in men has been longest established: North America, Europe, Australia/New Zealand and the former USSR. Among the other 6 cancer sites considered in this analysis, those with the largest fractions of tobacco-related cases are the larynx, mouth and pharynx (excluding nasopharynx) and oesophagus. In regions where males have smoked for several decades, 30 to 40% of all cancers in this sex are attributable to tobacco. Unless tobacco-control efforts in developing countries are strengthened, the massive rise in cigarette consumption over the last few decades will produce a comparable rise in cancer in these countries within the next 20 to 30 years.
吸烟被公认为是导致肺癌、喉癌、口腔癌、咽癌、食管癌、胰腺癌、肾癌和膀胱癌的主要原因。1985年,对世界上24个地区因吸烟导致的这些癌症的比例进行了估算。所有癌症病例中有15%——每年110万新病例——归因于吸烟,男性中这一比例为25%,女性为4%。在发达国家,吸烟导致的癌症负担估计占每年所有新发病例的16%。在发展中国家,相应的数字是10%。总体而言,男性中67.6万例肺癌病例中有85%归因于吸烟。在男性吸烟习惯确立时间最长的地区,即北美、欧洲、澳大利亚/新西兰和前苏联,估计归因比例最高(AF:90 - 93%)。在本分析中考虑的其他6个癌症部位中,与吸烟相关病例占比最大的是喉、口腔和咽(不包括鼻咽)以及食管。在男性吸烟数十年的地区,该性别中所有癌症的30%至40%归因于吸烟。除非加强发展中国家的控烟努力,过去几十年香烟消费量的大幅上升将在未来20至30年内使这些国家的癌症发病率出现类似的上升。